WorldACD: Peak Season Paradox 2025 – Global Air Freight Rates Rise Despite Falling Volumes

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The latest data from WorldACD shows that global air freight rates edged up to $2.68/kg by the end of November 2025 despite falling volumes, reflecting tight capacity and strong regional differentiation.

The global air freight market is witnessing an interesting paradox during the peak season. According to the latest data from WorldACD Market Data (covering over 500,000 weekly transactions), global air freight rates increased by 1% in the two-week period ending 23 November 2025, reaching $2.68/kg. Notably, this increase occurred against the backdrop of a 3% decline in chargeable weight.

The “mismatch” between rising rates and falling volumes is often a sign of tight capacity utilization, forcing shippers to accept higher prices to secure space. In fact, global load factors hit 63% in November – the highest level in over 30 months.

A Regional Breakdown

YoY, global rates rose 6% while volumes fell 3%. However, there were significant regional differences:

•    Africa: Recorded the strongest rate performance with a 12% increase yoy, despite volumes growing only modestly by 1% over the past five weeks.

•    Middle East and South Asia (MESA): Rates rose 9% yoy, despite a sharp 19% decline in freightable tonnage from the region compared to the last two weeks.

•    North America and Latin America: Both regions recorded a 4% increase in freight rates over the five-week period.

•    Asia-Pacific & Europe: Freight rates declined slightly by 1%, although the Asia-Pacific region still recorded modest volume growth.

Asia-Pacific: Trade Flows Shift

The Asia-Pacific market continues to dominate global freight flows, but is undergoing a significant reshaping due to US tariffs and “de minimis” regulations.

•    Spot rates: Remained high at around USD 4.00/kg in early November.

•    Southeast Asia on the rise: While Northeast Asian hubs (China, Hong Kong, South Korea) recorded a decline in volumes, Southeast Asian sources such as Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore boomed with volume growth ranging from 30% to 52% y-o-y on trans-Pacific routes.

•    China-US routes: Spot rates peaked at USD 5.59/kg in early November, the highest in 2025, reflecting peak season pressure, although still below USD 5.90 in 2024.

Capacity Challenges and 2026 Outlook

Global air freight capacity grew by just 5% y-o-y, failing to keep up with demand. Airlines are prioritizing passenger networks, reducing bellyhold capacity on certain trade routes. At the same time, retirements of older freighters and delays in new aircraft deliveries are exacerbating the capacity shortage.

Looking ahead to 2026, industry forecasts show global air freight demand growing between 4% and 6%, significantly slower than the double-digit growth seen in 2024. This adjustment reflects ongoing uncertainties around trade policies (particularly from the US), manufacturing activity and consumer spending patterns.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has also warned that proposed tariffs on major trading partners such as Canada, China and Mexico could disrupt global supply chains and undermine consumer confidence in the near term.

Source: Phaata.com (According to WorldACD)