Exports to accelerate by the end of 2025: Maintaining recovery momentum, expanding markets
Export turnover in the first 10 months of 2025 reached 391 billion USD, up 16.2%, creating an important foundation for acceleration in the context of improved global demand and strong FTA development.
Exports recover strongly, creating a solid foundation for the final sprint of the year
On November 19, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh signed Official Dispatch No. 221/CD-TTg dated November 19, 2025 on focusing on prioritizing maintaining macroeconomic stability and promoting exports. In particular, the Prime Minister requested the Ministry of Industry and Trade to focus on implementing drastic solutions to strongly promote exports, especially at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year, to meet the increased consumer demand in the international market during Christmas and New Year.
In addition, promoting trade promotion, diversifying markets, diversifying products, diversifying supply chains. Speed up the negotiation and signing of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements with potential partners (such as GCC, Pakistan, Egypt, MERCOSUR, Algeria, etc.); continue to negotiate a reciprocal trade agreement with the United States under the direction of competent authorities.
The Prime Minister’s dispatch once again shows the Government’s attention to export activities – one of the country’s important macroeconomic growth drivers. Looking back at the results of the past 10 months, it can be seen that export activities have made a strong mark on our country’s economy.
Talking to reporters of the Industry and Trade Newspaper, Dr. Le Quoc Phuong, former Deputy Director of the Industry and Trade Information Center – Ministry of Industry and Trade, shared that the trade data for the first 10 months of 2025 is sketching a rather bright picture of foreign trade, showing the resilience and rapid recovery of the Vietnamese economy.
Specifically, the import-export scale exceeded 762.5 billion USD, up 17.4% over the same period, corresponding to an absolute increase of 112.7 billion USD – a rare increase in the context of the global economy with many uncertainties, tariff tensions and the return of trade protectionism in many countries.
Exports alone reached 391 billion USD, up 16.2%, continuing to maintain a double-digit growth momentum and maintaining a trade surplus of 19.56 billion USD, thereby making an important contribution to macroeconomic stability and the large balance of the economy.
October 2025 was also the fourth consecutive month that exports exceeded 42 billion USD, although down slightly by 1.5% compared to September but still maintained a historical high. This shows that orders are clearly recovering, especially when entering the fourth quarter – a period when global consumer demand increases sharply during Christmas and New Year.
Export growth in the 10 months came from both breadth and depth, in both the processed and manufactured industrial products and agricultural products.
Of which, the processed industrial group reached 346.73 billion USD, up 17.1%, continuing to be the pillar accounting for 88.7% of total export turnover. Many items recorded a leap forward such as electronics, computers and components: 87.3 billion USD, up 47.9%; Machinery, equipment, tools, spare parts: 48.4 billion USD, up 12.2%; Means of transport and spare parts: 14.3 billion USD, up 13.5%; Textiles and garments: nearly 33 billion USD, up 7.6%; Footwear: nearly 20 billion USD, up 6.6%.
Meanwhile, the agricultural sector continues to play a supporting role, especially thanks to the increase in selling prices of many items such as coffee, pepper, cashew nuts, etc., bringing the total turnover of agricultural, forestry and fishery products to 41.95 billion USD.
Production activities in October also recorded a breakthrough with PMI reaching 54.5 points, a sharp increase compared to September and showing that the health of the manufacturing industry is improving steadily. This reflects the trend when imports in 10 months increased by 18.6%, equivalent to an increase of 58.18 billion USD, concentrated in the group of input materials serving production, thereby creating room for increased exports in the last months of the year.
Leverage from FTAs and border gate economy
A notable bright spot is import-export activities through the northern border gates, especially in Lang Son. As of mid-November 2025, the total import-export turnover through the province reached 81 billion USD, up 43% over the same period. This is a breakthrough increase in recent years.
Road border gates such as Huu Nghi, Chi Ma, Tan Thanh are handling an average of 1,700 vehicles per day, ensuring smooth customs clearance and avoiding congestion, despite the sharp increase in year-end seasonal traffic.
Main export items include: fresh fruits, agricultural products, garments, textiles, fine art wood… While imports are electronic components, complete automobiles, consumer goods and industrial machinery. The smooth operation at Lang Son border gate area is directly supporting businesses to take advantage of the time of high demand in the Chinese and world markets.
In Lao Cai, according to the Provincial Electronic Information Portal, the total value of import and export, purchase and sale, and exchange of goods through the province’s border gates in October is estimated at 297.1 million USD, an increase of 13.65% compared to September 2025 and an increase of 20.9% compared to the same period in 2024. In the first 10 months of 2025, the import and export turnover through Lao Cai’s border gates is estimated at 2,472.73 million USD, equal to 61.82% of the yearly plan.
To promote trade connections and contribute to import and export, the 25th Vietnam – China International Trade Fair (Lao Cai) will take place from November 20-24, 2025, gathering nearly 700 booths and is the most important trade – investment promotion event of Lao Cai province in the year.
Thanks to the contribution of exports through border gates, Vietnam – China trade in the first 10 months of 2025 reached 207.9 billion USD, of which exports to China reached 57 billion USD, up 13%.
Dr. Le Quoc Phuong added that the system of 17 signed FTAs is becoming an “energy circuit” for Vietnam’s exports. Thanks to good use of tax incentives, exports to markets in CPTPP, EVFTA or RCEP have maintained impressive growth rates. Enterprises are also being more proactive in meeting standards and rules of origin to enjoy tariff incentives, such as the case of Lenger Vietnam seafood enterprise expanding raw material areas to boost exports to Japan, Canada, Australia, etc.
Prospects for the end of 2025: Exports continue to break through
According to calculations, if the import-export speed of about 80 billion USD/month can be maintained, the total turnover in 2025 can exceed 920 billion USD. In case of a slight decrease in orders, the level of 915-917 billion USD is still completely feasible. With the foundation of 10 months reaching 762.44 billion USD, the export prospect at the end of the year is assessed positively.
The latest economic outlook report recently published by MBS Securities Company shows that trade activities maintain a stable growth momentum along with positive signs of recovery in the manufacturing industry as we enter the final months of 2025.
Accordingly, the Ministry of Industry and Trade forecasts that total import-export turnover this year could reach a new record of 900 billion USD. “Based on the impressive results in the past 10 months, we estimate that export growth this year will be at 15% – 17%,” said an MBS representative.
This assessment is supported by signs of a slight recovery in international demand, as according to the S&P PMI report, the number of new export orders in October increased for the first time in a year. In addition, the cooling of tariff tensions is expected to help create a more stable environment for trade activities in the coming time.
Dr. Le Quoc Phuong added that the end of the year is always a time of strong consumption in the US, EU, and Japan – markets that have increased imports of Vietnamese goods over the past 10 months. This is an important basis for boosting exports in the context of recovering international demand. This is also an important driving force for ministries, localities, and enterprises to successfully complete the Prime Minister’s Official Dispatch No. 221/CD-TTg.
Source: Báo Công Thương
