Air Freight Rates Fall for Six Months in a Row: Peak Season ‘Quiet’
A global air freight market analysis for October 2025 shows spot rates continued to decline for the sixth consecutive month as supply outstripped demand, signaling weaker demand in the coming months, despite a slight increase in volumes.
Rates Fall as Market Shifts to Favor Shippers
The air freight market is shifting further in favor of shippers, as carriers brace for weaker demand, according to a November 6 report from Xeneta, a data analytics firm for the air and ocean freight market.
Global air freight spot rates fell for the sixth consecutive month in October, down 3% year-on-year to $2.58/kg (Xeneta data). Notably, seasonal contract rates fell even faster, reaching $2.31/kg, down 8% year-on-year.
Despite the fall in rates, global air freight volumes in October were up 4% year-on-year. However, this was not enough to overcome the 5% increase in supply. The report also highlighted that peak season growth momentum remained “silent” on the top three global trade lanes.
October By the Numbers
• 4% increase in global air cargo volumes year-on-year (YoY)
• 2.58 USD/kg: Average spot rates, down 3% YoY
• 4.84 USD/kg: Spot rates from Southeast Asia to North America, down 21% YoY
• 4.37 USD/kg: Spot rates from Northeast Asia to North America, down 10% YoY
Challenges Ahead for Airlines and Freight Forwarders
Air freight demand in October was softer than expected, especially considering the end of the US de minimis exemption on August 29 and a reduction in frontloading by shippers following a surge in the face of new tariffs, according to Xeneta.
However, current trends point to significant challenges for airlines and forwarders in the coming months. Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said in the report: “Announcements by companies to cut costs are increasing across the board – and will continue – and we would not see that if the market outlook were more positive.”
Van de Wouw also pointed to a 6% year-on-year decline in demand on the Europe-North America route in October – a route that is largely focused on general air cargo – as a “signal for the rest of global trade”, highlighting that the market is cooling. However, spot rates on this route have increased 4% YoY, but this is a significant slowdown from the 23% growth recorded at the start of the year.
Meanwhile, e-commerce shipments from China to the US fell for the fifth consecutive month in September, with volumes down 34% year-on-year (Xeneta). The de minimis exemption has been a key driver of activity on the route.
Amid weak demand, Van de Wouw expects air freight rates to remain under downward pressure as forwarders compete for volume. While shippers may benefit from lower rates, they may have bigger issues on their minds.
Van de Wouw concludes: “I think most shippers would rather have 10% higher shipping costs and 10% higher sales than 10% lower shipping costs and 10% lower sales.”
Source: Phaata.com (Source: Supply Chain Dive)
