Positive forecast for pangasius exports in the second half of the year
Pangasius export prices are forecast to improve as demand gradually recovers in major markets and imports increase towards the end of the year to serve the Tet holiday.
According to data from the General Department of Customs, in May 2024, Vietnam’s pangasius export turnover reached 167 million USD, up 5% compared to May 2023. Total pangasius export turnover in the first 5 months of 2024 reached 747 million USD, up 2% over the same period last year.
Frozen pangasius fillets are still the main product in Vietnam’s pangasius exports. In May 2024, the export turnover of this product reached 134 million USD, up 2% over the same period last year. By the end of May, the export turnover of frozen pangasius fillets reached nearly 603 million USD, down slightly by 0.1% over the same period last year.
In terms of consumption markets, China and Hong Kong are still the largest markets for Vietnamese pangasius. Cumulative pangasius exports to this market in the first 5 months of the year reached nearly 203 million USD, down 13% over the same period last year. In May alone, the export value of pangasius to China and Hong Kong reached nearly 50 million USD, up slightly 0.4% over the same period and up 21% over the previous month.
The US is Vietnam’s second largest market for pangasius, but the export turnover in May 2024 only reached 30 million USD, down 7% compared to the same period last year. However, the cumulative export turnover of pangasius to the US in the first 5 months of this year reached more than 132 million USD, up 12% compared to the same period in 2023.
Pangasius exports to the CPTPP market ranked third and continued to maintain growth momentum in May 2024 with a value of nearly 13 million USD, up 17% compared to the same period last year. Some markets in the CPTPP block such as Mexico, Japan, Canada, and Singapore recorded an increase in pangasius imports. The total export turnover of pangasius to CPTPP in the first 5 months of the year reached 103 million USD, up 9% over the same period.
The EU market ranked fourth, but in May 2024, the export value of pangasius to the EU only reached 14 million USD, down 16% compared to the same period last year. Cumulative pangasius exports to the EU in the first 5 months of the year reached 70 million USD, down 9% compared to the same period last year. Despite the decrease in turnover, some markets in the EU such as Bulgaria, Hungary, and the Czech Republic recorded an increase in imports of Vietnamese pangasius in May 2024.
Tien Phong Securities (TPS) assessed that the prospect of pangasius exports in the second half of 2024 is positive thanks to many supporting factors such as controlled inflation in major markets, creating momentum for consumption and eating activities to recover. In addition, major economies are forecast to grow positively in 2024. In the April 2024 global economic outlook report, the IMF raised its forecast for US GDP to 2.7% and EU GDP to 0.8%. TPS also expects demand in the Chinese market to improve as economic support policies begin to take effect.
In particular, the US and EU tightening seafood imports from Russia will open up opportunities for Vietnamese pangasius. In terms of prices, pangasius export prices have improved as demand gradually recovers in major markets and imports increase at the end of the year to serve the Tet holiday. Low raw fish prices also cause farmers to delay releasing new breeds, affecting supply in the first half of 2024.
In the second half of the year, pangasius supply is expected to be more stable as the area of new breeds increases again in the first quarter of 2024. At the same time, input prices for pangasius farming may decrease due to the weakening of El Nino and more favorable weather, supporting the release of fish by farming households.
Source: doanhnghiephoinhap
